Alphamin's resumption of production marks the end of the most severe supply shock phase in the tin market, with SHFE tin prices fluctuating and pulling back [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Lunchtime Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on May 13, 2025

Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) exhibited a volatile and pulling-back trend. It opened higher in the morning session at 264,750 yuan/mt (up 1,550 yuan/mt from yesterday's close), then fluctuated and pulled back, with the price oscillating around the 263,000 yuan/mt level. It closed at 261,030 yuan/mt at midday, down slightly by 0.03% intraday. Total open interest decreased to around 30,500 lots, as some bulls took profits and exited the market.

Alphamin Resources Corp.'s Bisie tin mine produced 1,290 mt of metal tin between April 15 and May 11, 2025, achieving the expected processing and recovery rates. Tin production commenced by processing raw ore stockpiles from the mine, initially from the Mpama North plant, followed by the restart of the Mpama South plant on April 19, 2025. Underground ore blasting and transportation began in the last week of April 2025, while the mine development rate also increased. Since the restart of the mine, the first batch of fully documented and approved tin concentrates for export was dispatched by truck on May 9, 2025. According to SMM, the transportation cycle for tin concentrates from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to Asia typically takes 4-6 weeks. Therefore, the first batch dispatched on May 9 is expected to enter the smelting process in June, and the spot market will continue to face inventory tightness pressure in the short term. Meanwhile, the news of production resumption may curb the speculative sentiment that had been driven by geopolitical risks, thereby suppressing the upward movement of SHFE tin prices. Overall, Alphamin's production resumption marks the end of the most severe supply shock phase in the tin market, but the tight balance for the whole year remains unchanged. Short-term prices may correct to release risk premiums.

The spot market continued to exhibit a sluggish atmosphere. Smelters continued to stand firm on quotes and hold back sales due to high raw material costs, while traders quoted prices in line with the market. However, downstream enterprises mainly made small-scale purchases based on immediate needs, with limited acceptance of high prices. Actual transactions were mostly concentrated below 263,000 yuan/mt.